Awards Predictions 2013

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by Tony Dayoub

For unavoidable life-related reasons—nothing bad, just requiring attention—I've been absent far too long from the site. But I promise to make it up to you when I return with one doozy of a Blu-ray guide. In the meantime, how can I let this weekend, the culmination of awards season, slip by without notice? I'm not too good of a prognosticator when it comes to these things, especially when many of my favorite films aren't even nominated. Those pesky emotions get in the way, you know? Still, Indiewire found reason to ask me and some other fellow critics who we thought should and would win both the Independent Spirit awards and the Oscars. I gave it my best shot. To see the results (and what other critics participated), click here for the Spirit poll and here for the Oscar poll. Here's my individual ballot for each:


Spirits:

Best Feature

Will Win: Beasts of the Southern Wild
Should Win: Moonrise Kingdom

Best Director

Will Win: Benh Zeitlin Beasts of the Southern Wild
Should Win: Wes Anderson Moonrise Kingdom

Best First Feature

Will Win: Safety Not Guaranteed
Should Win: The Perks of Being a Wallflower

John Cassavetes Award

Will Win: Middle of Nowhere
Should Win: "The Color Wheel"

Best Screenplay

Will Win: Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola Moonrise Kingdom
Should Win: Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola Moonrise Kingdom

Best First Screenplay

Will Win: Derek Connolly Safety Not Guaranteed
Should Win: Derek Connolly Safety Not Guaranteed

Best Female Lead

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Emayatzy Corinealdi Middle of Nowhere

Best Male Lead

Will Win: Jack Black Bernie
Should Win: Matthew McConaughey Killer Joe

Best Supporting Female

Will Win: Ann Dowd Compliance
Should Win: Ann Dowd Compliance

Best Supporting Male

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey Magic Mike
Should Win: Matthew McConaughey Magic Mike

Best Cinematography

Will Win: Ben Richardson Beasts of the Southern Wild
Should Win: Robert Yeoman Moonrise Kingdom

Best Documentary

Will Win: How to Survive a Plague
Should Win: How to Survive a Plague

Best Foreign Film

Will Win: Amour
Should Win: Amour

Oscars:

Best Picture

Will Win: Argo
Should Win: Amour

Best Director

Will Win: Steven Spielberg Lincoln
Should Win: Michael Haneke Amour

Best Actor

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis Lincoln
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix The Master

Best Actress

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva Amour

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman The Master
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman The Master

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Anne Hathaway Les Misérables
Should Win: Amy Adams The Master

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Mark Boal Zero Dark Thirty
Should Win: Mark Boal Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Chris Terrio Argo
Should Win: Tony Kushner Lincoln

Best Foreign Film

Will Win: Amour
Should Win: Amour

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win: Searching for Sugar Man
Should Win: How to Survive a Plague

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: Brave
Should Win: ParaNorman

Best Cinematography

Will Win: Roger Deakins Skyfall
Should Win: Roger Deakins Skyfall

Best Original Score

Will Win: Alexandre Desplat Argo
Should Win: Thomas Newman Skyfall

And finally, a reminder to put it all in perspective...